Lada's Nine-Month Slide: Sales Down 24.9% as AvtoVAZ Cuts Its 2025 Production Plan

Sales of Lada passenger cars in Russia fell 24.9% year on year to 237,706 units in January-September 2025, and the brand's market share slipped to 26.5%, down 0.9 percentage points, according to calculations by Avtostat published on October 3, 2025. The nine-month result confirms that the country's largest carmaker is living through the same demand contraction as the wider market, and it frames the production decision AvtoVAZ took in mid-September: a yearly output plan cut from 500,000 cars to a level of more than 300,000.

September and the nine-month balance

The monthly slice shows the slide continuing rather than stabilising. A total of 26,375 Lada cars were sold in Russia in September, down 24.6% year on year, and the brand's market share for the month was 21.5%, down 1.7 percentage points. Lada nevertheless retains its leadership in the number of cars sold, which is the structural fact that keeps the decline a company story rather than a niche one: when the market leader loses a quarter of its volume, the whole market's composition moves with it.

Over the nine months, the 24.9% fall to 237,706 units came with a share of 26.5%, meaning the market itself shrank faster in some segments than Lada did, but not enough to protect the brand's relative position. A share loss of 0.9 percentage points on a falling market indicates that competitors, above all locally assembled foreign brands, held their ground better than the domestic leader.

The model ranking: Granta first, Vesta under pressure

In the model rating the first place is also held by a Russian car: the Lada Granta sold 11,931 units in September, down 25.1%, and 106,033 units over nine months, down 28.8%. The market share of the AvtoVAZ bestseller fell below 10% and amounted to 9.7% in September, a threshold that matters symbolically for a model long treated as the market's default purchase.

The Lada Vesta sits in third place in popularity on the market with 5,997 units in September, down 43.1%, and 61,888 units in January-September, down 34%. For the second month in a row the Vesta was below the most popular foreign-brand car assembled locally on the Russian market, the Haval Jolion crossover, which sold 6,154 units in September. Avtostat notes that the largest year-on-year sales decline in September was recorded precisely by the Lada Vesta, the model that carries the brand's move upmarket.

The rest of the Lada top ten

Lada Niva Legend: 2,999 units in September, down 18.2% year on year; 24,267 units in January-September, down 29.2%.
Lada Largus VP: 2,740 units in September, up 2.5-fold year on year; 20,637 units in nine months, up eightfold.
Lada Granta: 11,931 units in September and 106,033 in nine months, remaining the market's number one model.
Lada Vesta: 5,997 units in September and 61,888 in nine months, the steepest September decline in the top ten.

The Largus VP line is the one bright spot: a multi-fold increase from a low base shows where residual demand still concentrates, in practical commercial and passenger-commercial bodies rather than in the sedan segment the Vesta represents.

The production plan follows the market

Car factory with sawtooth roofs standing for the cut Lada production plan

In mid-September the head of AvtoVAZ, Maxim Sokolov, announced a reduction in the production plan for Lada this year to a level of more than 300,000 units. A year ago the concern wanted to produce 500,000 cars this year, but then adjusted its plans amid a weak market. The distance between those two numbers, 200,000 cars, is the measure of how far 2025 demand fell below the assumptions on which the year was planned.

Sokolov's formulation leaves deliberate room around the new figure: taking into account the operation of the plant in St. Petersburg, the company will definitely produce more than 300,000 cars, and how much more will be shown by the end of the year. The market, in his words, has now started to swing, so the company expects to produce plus or minus 10% from the 300,000 level. His closing remark defines the operating logic: the company can produce as many cars as it wants, but it is important to balance output with sales.

What to watch next

Whether the September share of 21.5% marks a floor or continues to erode into the fourth quarter.
The Vesta's position against the locally assembled Haval Jolion in the monthly model ranking.
Where inside the plus-or-minus-10% band AvtoVAZ lands its 2025 output once St. Petersburg volumes are counted.
Whether the Granta's sub-10% monthly market share recovers with seasonal demand or settles as the new normal.

The nine-month picture leaves AvtoVAZ with the classic dilemma of a market leader in a contracting market: cutting output protects dealer stock and prices, but cedes share to rivals whose locally assembled models, like the Jolion, keep selling. The 237,706 units sold in January-September are both a result and a constraint, because every car not sold this year is a slot in next year's plan that has to be argued for again.