Transcontainer Expects Russia's Rail Container Market to Pass 10 Million TEU by 2030

Summary: the volume of Russia's rail container transport market will exceed 10 million TEU in 2030, almost a third above the 2024 level, Nikita Pushkarev (Никита Пушкарев), first vice-president of PJSC Transcontainer (Трансконтейнер), part of the Delo Group (ГК «Дело»), said at the PRO//Dvizhenie.Siberia transport and logistics conference in Novosibirsk. In the first seven months of 2024 the market carried 4.55 million TEU, up 8.6% year on year.

The 2030 forecast by segment

According to Pushkarev, domestic carriage may grow by 27.8% by 2030, imports by 17.8% and transit by 24%. Export may grow at a somewhat faster pace, by 39.6%, which he explained by the growing potential of the Russian economy in sectors such as agricultural, forestry and petrochemical production, as well as by the continuing containerization of the cargo base.

Domestic carriage: +27.8% by 2030.
Imports: +17.8%.
Transit: +24%.
Exports: +39.6%, the fastest segment.

Containerization: 14.3% and rising

By Transcontainer's estimate, if in 2010 the containerization level in Russia was 3.7%, in 2024 it reached 14.3%. The highest indicator is recorded for cargoes such as auto components, machinery and equipment, food and chemical products. Pushkarev stressed that the potential of cargo containerization in Russia is far from exhausted, since in countries with a developed level of rail containerization the indicator stands at around 30-40%.

China as the market's driver

Foreign trade ties with China are to a significant extent the driver of container transport development in Russia at present, the company notes: about 80% of all container trade today is trade with China, Pushkarev said. Earlier in February 2024, at the Business Infrastructure Initiatives forum, first vice-president Valery Veremeev (Валерий Веремеев) put the company's 2024 capital expenditure plan at more than 21 billion rubles and forecast the market at 8 million TEU in 2024 against 7.3 million TEU in 2023, with growth of another 2 million TEU by 2030.